Seasonal Prediction of Omicron Pandemic (preprint)

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has pushed the world in the face of another huge outbreak. In order to have a better understanding on the fast transmission of Omicron variant, we made seasonal predictions on the development of Omicron pandemic globally, as well as 11 key countries. The results demonstrated that the pandemic has an exponential-like growth rate at the initial stage of the outbreak, and will have small resurgences around April and June in north hemisphere countries and south hemisphere countries, respectively.

Environmental indicator for effective control of COVID-19 spreading (preprint)

Recently, a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused viral pneumonia worldwide, spreading to more than 200 countries, posing a major threat to international health. To prevent the spread of COVID-19, in this study, we report that the city lockdown measure was an effective way to reduce the number of new cases, and the nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentration can be adopted as an environmental lockdown indicator. In China, after strict city lockdown, the average NO2 concentration decreased 55.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 51.5-59.6%) and the total number of newly confirmed cases decreased significantly. Our results also indicate that the global airborne NO2 concentration steeply decreased over the vast majority of COVID-19-hit areas based on satellite measurements. We found that the total number of newly confirmed cases reached an inflection point about two weeks after the lockdown. The total number of newly confirmed cases can be reduced by about 50% within 30 days of the lockdown. The stricter lockdown will help newly confirmed cases to decline earlier and more rapidly. Italy, Germany and France are good examples. Our results suggest that NO2 satellite measurement can help decision makers effectively monitor control regulations to reduce the spread of COVID-19.